This market resolves as "Yes" if Joe Biden is the 2024 Democrat nominee for US president. It will resolve "No" if anyone except Joe Biden is the Democrat nominee for US President in 2024.
This market resolves as "Yes" if Donald Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee for US president. It will resolve "No" if anyone except Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for US President in 2024.
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential Election? This market resolves yes if the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential Election held in Novemeber 2024. It will resolve No if the Democrats do not win the Election.
Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"
Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2023 shows an increase of 1.03°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.03°C or greater for 2023 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether prior years' figures are revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2023" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2023 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market resolves as "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. It will resolve "No" if anyone except Donald Trump wins. This includes if Trump does not win by losing the primary, losing the general election, withdrawal from the race, or death. It will resolve when called by 2/3 of major news outlets CNN, Fox, or AP.
