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News Prediction Markets

Predict election outcomes and Trump’s exit date on the Fairlay news section. Bet on the Game of Thrones characters using Bitcoins and be crowned with the Iron Throne. Forecast anything; from entertainment to politics and win big!

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Will Joe Biden Complete his first term as President?

Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"

Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

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2024 United States Presidential Election: Which political party will win?

Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA? If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.

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Total COVID deaths in USA in 2021

Total number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States during the calander year from the beginning of the day January 1st 2021 to the end of the day December 31st 2021...total deaths will be taken from worldometers.info/coronavirus, if that site is unavailable data will be taken from the CDC.

Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.

Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.

The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

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Biden US President 2022

Will Joe Biden still be US President at the beginning of 2022?

Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.

For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract.A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S.Department of Labor.

End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of murder?

This market shall resolve to yes in the event that former Police Officer Derek Chauvin is convicted of second-degree unintentional murder and/or third-degree murder in the death of George Floyd during the trial with the first empaneled jury considering the charges against him. This market will resolve to no if he is acquitted of these charges or the jury does not ultimately consider one or both of them, even if Chauvin is convicted of second-degree manslaughter or any other charge. This market will resolve to no if a mistrial is declared in this matter for any reason, including a hung jury, before the first jury empaneled to try this matter delivers a verdict. Any appeals after a verdict is delivered are void, this market will resolve to yes immediately on the return of a conviction on the count of either second-degree unintentional murder or third-degree murder.

Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.

In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S".

Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina.Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms.Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.

Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.

Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?



The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S.Cabinet.

For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –

The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --

And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --

And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.

This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions.Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market.Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.

The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.

Supplementary Comment(s)

Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.

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Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S.Senate.Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S.Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.

Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S.Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.

Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.

In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively.

Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?

The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').

Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.

In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.

Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?



The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.

In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.

Supplementary Comment(s)

Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are "Xi", "Suga", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.

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How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S.House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.

For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

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How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S.Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.

A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.

Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms.Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms.Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "59 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "84 or more" shall resolve to Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms.Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.

The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?

This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.

Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.

End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will the SNP win a Majority of seats?

Will the SNP Party win a Majority of seats at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?,For Yes to be a winner the SNP must win 65 or more seats at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.,This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2021. If more than one election takes place in 2021, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.,transmissions described as "live" by some broadcasters may actually be delayed;,the extent of any such delay may vary, depending on the set-up through which they are receiving pictures or data.

Hartlepool By-Election - Winner

Which party candidate will win the Hartlepool by-election?,This market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled at the stated time on the day of the by-election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed.,***ALL BETS STAND RUN OR NOT***,Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

London Mayoral Election Winner 2021

Who will be elected to be the next Mayor of London as a result of the 2021 London mayoral election?,This market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled at the stated time on the day of the 2021 London mayoral election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Non-listed runners may be added to this market upon request.,This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2021. If more than one election takes place in 2021, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

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