During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant clemency to political consultant Roger Jason Stone Jr.for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions.Such clemency will be considered to have been granted only if Mr.Stone appears on the official list of presidential pardons and commutations granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S.Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).
Clemency for Mr.Stone that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes.Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to a clemency grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S.Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J.Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S.Senate casting votes to convict Donald J.Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.
Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr.Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr.Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote.Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
I'm sick of presidential markets closing prematurely, so I have created a market that can't be closed early. The election at this point should be decided by January 20th 2021, but as we are seeing there are no gaurentees, so this market asks who will be president on March 1st 2021 and it takes into account VP's so it can't be closed early.
