Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S.House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract.A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S.Department of Labor.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S.government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).
For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S.Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions.Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market.Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S.Senate.Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina.Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms.Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S".
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively.
The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S.Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
