Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source").
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Which Partly will win the most seats as a result of the 2021 German election?,At the start of voting on the day of the election, this market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.,This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2021. If more than one election takes place in 2021, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that shall make up the first governing coalition of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
A party shall be considered to be part of a governing coalition if a majority of its representatives in the Bundestag cast a vote in favor of the election of the next Chancellor of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
For purposes of this market, any contract that references the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shall also be considered to reference the Christian Social Union in Bavaria.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 09/02/2021 12:48 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The contract that resolves to Yes shall list all of the parties that make up the coalition, and only those parties.For example, if a contract lists only two parties and the coalition includes more than just those two, that contract will resolve as No.Potential coalitions may be added to this market as needed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below.A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S.Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
Which Party's candidate will be elected/appointed the next Chancellor of Germany as a result of the 2021 German election?,If a new Chancellor is not elected/appointed as a result of the first 2021 German federal election and a new election is called by the President of Germany then this market will be void.,At the start of voting on the day of the election, this market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Who will be elected/appointed the next Chancellor of Germany as a result of the 2021 German election?,If a new Chancellor is not elected/appointed as a result of the first 2021 German federal election and a new election is called by the President of Germany then this market will be void.,At the start of voting on the day of the election, this market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.
The next Canadian federal election will be held on September 20, 2021. This market will resolve to the party winning the most seats in the election (which may not necessarily be the party forming the next government or the party of the next Prime Minister).
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S.Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Veronica Rossman (the "Nominee") to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit (the "Office"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "58 or more" shall resolve to Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S".
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.
If no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No.For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021. .
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Buffalo, New York in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Chile.
If no presidential election is held in 2021, all contracts shall resolve as No.For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2021 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office the individual holds upon launch of this market on August 6, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S.Senate.Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S.Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions.Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market.Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.
For purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –
United States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Claims, and the Supreme Court of the United States.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Tracy Stone-Manning is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Director of the Bureau of Land Management by the End Date listed below.
This market shall resolve to No in the event that a withdrawal of Tracy Stone-Manning's nomination is formally communicated to the United States Senate.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture in the U.S.Senate in 2021.
The total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture can be found by subtracting the number of times that cloture is invoked from the number of votes on cloture (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/clotureCounts.htm).
The outcome of a vote to invoke cloture that begins in 2021 and finishes in 2022 will be counted towards the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kevin McCarthy testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol.
Live testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.Videotaped testimony shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
Should Mr.McCarthy appear at any hearing whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr.McCarthy submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.
Which party's nominee will win the next French presidential election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Non featured parties may be added to this market upon request.,Should a Party change only its name and maintain its original composition, then that Party will continue to trade under its original name.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act.
The legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.
Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2019) Federal Election? This market will be turned,IN PLAY,This is a,cross-matching,market.,BET IN-PLAY,Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call,132BET (132238)
Who will be elected to be the next President of Brazil as a result of the 2022 Brazilian General Election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the 1st round of the election, as well as the start of the 2nd round of voting. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.
Which party will control a majority of seats as a result of the 2022 US Senate elections?,Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market,Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any point up until the stated time on the day of election when this market will be,turned in-play,. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions.,Where a runoff is required to determine who wins Senate seats we will wait for the result of the runoff before settling the market on the final Senate seat numbers once all results are in
Which party will control a majority of House of Representatives seats as a result of the 2022 US House of Representatives elections?,This market will be,turned in-play,, with unmatched bets cancelled, at the stated time on the day of election. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.,For the purpose of this market, a majority of seats requires either named party to control at least 218 of the total 435 US House of Representatives seats, as a result of the 2022 US House of Representatives elections. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will not count for the purposes of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms.Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms.Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S.Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members.For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.,The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals.
When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?,This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024.
Which party will gain an overall majority of parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.,The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals.
