Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S.House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source").
Who will be elected/appointed the next Chancellor of Germany as a result of the 2021 German election?,If a new Chancellor is not elected/appointed as a result of the first 2021 German federal election and a new election is called by the President of Germany then this market will be void.,At the start of voting on the day of the election, this market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract.A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Who will be elected to be the Democratic Party nominee for the 2021 New York Mayoral election? ?,This market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2021 Democratic Primary. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times. Non-listed runners may be added to this market upon request.,This market will be void if the Democratic Party do not nominate a candidate to run in the 2021 election.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Atlanta, Georgia in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Which Party's candidate will be elected/appointed the next Chancellor of Germany as a result of the 2021 German election?,If a new Chancellor is not elected/appointed as a result of the first 2021 German federal election and a new election is called by the President of Germany then this market will be void.,At the start of voting on the day of the election, this market will be,turned in-play,with unmatched bets cancelled. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S".
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below.A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S.Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S.Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S.Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions.Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market.Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S.Senate.Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S.state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.
Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.
Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S.House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election.Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat.An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day.In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. .
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives before the End Date listed below.
End Date: 9/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day].
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S.Senate on 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S.Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of David Chipman (the "Nominee") to the position of Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (the "Office"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "58 or more" shall resolve to Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep.Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on the Judiciary upon the End Date listed below.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, on the End Date listed below, the individual who holds the office of Governor of the State of California.
Should, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor during the impeachment, absence from the State, or other temporary disability of the Governor, the contract identifying the Governor shall nonetheless resolve to Yes.Should, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor due to the failure of a Governor-elect to take office, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below.One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2019) Federal Election? This market will be turned,IN PLAY,This is a,cross-matching,market.,BET IN-PLAY,Australian customers call Telbet to bet in-play on this market – call,132BET (132238)
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms.Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms.Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S.Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members.For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
Which party will gain an overall majority of parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.,The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals.
Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election?,This market will be,turned in-play,at the start of voting on the day of the next general election. Customers are entirely responsible for their positions at all times.,The Speaker will not be classified as belonging to any particular party, and will therefore not be counted in any individual party's seat totals.
When will the next UK General Election take place after the Election on the 12th December 2019?,This market will be settled on the morning of the General Election following the start of voting or on Jan 1 2024.
