What kind of predictions are offered on this site?
We are starting off with Bitcoin related predictions and sports - however, we will expand on this. And now you can
create your own market!
We have also introduced the option to create and manage your own LMSR Market Maker. You can find this option right beside the "Place Prediction" button on any market page.
What fees do you take? And what about the limits?
In the Sport, Live and Fun sections we take 0% fees. In the News section we only take a commission of 2% on your net winnings of the whole market. 50% of all generated fees go to the creator of the market.
The minimum withdrawal amount is 1mBTC and the fee is 0.5mBTC per transaction.
The minimum deposit amount is 5mBTC (any value below that will be ignored) and the fee is 0.2mBTC per transaction.
Do I place a prediction against Fairlay?
No - you always place predictions against other users. So every prediction must find a counterpart. If no one is willing to take the other side, you will get your stake back without any deductions.
How do I place a prediction?
Choose your odds and the amount of mBTC you want to wager and submit the prediction.
- Any manipulation of lines is strictly forbidden. All bets must be done in good faith.
- Bets placed on non-live markets after they started are subject to be voided.
I can choose my odds, really?
You can place predictions on markets at whatever odds you like. However, you need to find a counterpart who wants to place a prediction on the opposite outcome at the same odds. So you can try to get very favourable odds, but then it is unlikely that your prediction will be matched.
In effect this is like placing a buy order for one Bitcoin at $10 at an exchange. You can do it,
but probably this order will never be fulfilled.
What is the difference between Normal and Taker bets?
Normal orders (MakerTaker) are instantly matched when there is a counter bet waiting in the orderbook that matches the odds you're using for your prediction. If there isn't enough volume to cover your stake the remaining amount stays open adding liquidity to the orderbook and waits for another bet that matches your odds in order to get fully placed.
Taker orders only matches if there's a counter bet that matches your odds waiting in the orderbook, if there isn't enough volume or no orders have the the necessary odds the unmatched amount is automatically cancelled.
How are winnings calculated?
Lets say you place a prediction of 10,000 mBTC and your odds are 2.5. Your winnings are 10,000 * 2,5 = 25,000 mBTC.
We directly subtract a fee of 2% from the net winnings. The net winnings are 15,000 mBTC. 15,000 * 2% = 300.
So you will be credited with 25,000 - 300 = 24,700 mBTC. Please note that we don't take this fee in the sport and fun category.
What do closed and resolved mean?
When a market is closed, predictions can no longer be placed. The resolution date is the date when the outcome of the market is determined.
But be careful: some predictions can already be determined even if the resolution date or the closing date is not yet reached.
E.g., will a certain YouTube video have a number of views until a given date - so whatever you place a prediction on - make sure that there is a chance that it will happen.
How does Fairlay handle disputes?
In case of any unresolvable dispute between a user and Fairlay, Fairlay will accept arbitration from independent, well known, trustworthy entities in the Bitcoin space to settle the issue. Both parties have to agree to the arbitrator in advance. The arbitrator will also determine the party who has to pay the arbitration costs.
Fairlay reserves the right to freeze funds from any client who is suspected of any illegal activity or major misconduct. This includes line manipulation, match fixing, betting fraud and money laundering. In such a case Fairlay will also accept arbitration.
Where do I find an overview of my predictions?
How can I import orders created via API or Market Makers?
Matched predictions that were created via API or LMSR can be imported at
My Predictions page.
I just placed an open prediction. Why is the amount not deducted from my account?
Any user can place as much open orders as he pleases. Before any orders are matched we will always do a check if both users have enough available balance. If one user does not have the required funds, he has to pay a penalty of 0.1mBTC and his bet will be automatically cancelled and not matched. All users are required to make sure that they can have a sufficient high available balance all the time in order to avoid the penalty.
I think one of my predictions was settled wrong or not settled at all. What shall I do?
Most wrong settlements are automatically corrected within 48 hours. Some markets need manual review or manual settlement. Please wait 48 hours before contacting support.
Always include a link to your public profile or the market when you report a wrong settlement.
My deposit is not credited despite having 1 confirmation. What shall I do?
After your deposit is included in a block we still need up to 5 minutes to make sure, that the block is not orphaned.
Also note, that your balance does not update if you do not browse the site. You can force an update of your balance anytime if you click on your bankroll in the top right.
How long do you need to process withdrawals?
All withdrawals up to 20 BTC within a 24 hour period are instant.
For larger withdrawals please try to use an address you have used many times before to speed up the process.
How is the turnover calculated?
The turnover is based on the matched amount.
Its calculation depends on the odds chosen.
Odds > 2
If you choose odds > 2, the turnover is the amount you placed.
Placing a prediction ON the outcome with an amount of 10 mBTC at 3.0 odds.
Turnover == amount placed == 10 mBTC
Odds <= 2
When the odds are <= 2.0, the turnover is the minimum possible profit.
Placing a prediction ON the outcome with an amount of 10 mBTC at 1.5 odds.
Turnover == Profit
== amount_placed * (odds - 1)
== 10 * (1.5 - 1)
== 5 mBTC
Same goes for AGAINST bets, the only difference is that the odds are converted before we decide if we should take the profit or the amount placed.
What do spread values of +0.25, +2.75, -1.25 mean?
If you place a bet in this type of market your stake will be split in two. For example, in a game between Real Madrid and Barcelona with spread of +1.75, if you place a bet of 100mBTC on Real Madrid you're actually placing 50mBTC on Real Madrid at spread +1.5 and 50mBTC on Real Madrid at spread +2.0.
What needs to be kept in mind when betting on Horse Racings?
Every time when a horse withdraws from a race and it's winning chances are greater than or equal to 2.5% a reduction factor is introduced, which is an estimate for the winning chances of the withdrawn horse. All odds of all bets that have been matched so far will be reduced by the reduction factor.
For more information please read the betting rules linked to in every market description.
Settlement in case of multiple winners
All our markets can only be resolved to one winner. In the very rare case that there should be a shared first place amount several runners, we will void the whole market unless this case is handled in the description.
What time zone do you use?
We use UTC aka GMT. To facilitate use we also display how much time is left until resolution - so you don't have to care too much about time zones.
Why do I sometimes get "Forbidden (403). CSRF verification failed. Request aborted" message?
We still have not found a realiable way to reproduce this error (if you can help, please contact us), but you can try clear your browser cache or use the private mode. Click here for more information about Cross-Site Request Forgery attack.
What is Fairlay's cold wallet address? Is it public?
The sum of all issued credit to our customers will always equal the amount of Bitcoins in that address. For advanced users a real time proof of reserve is already implemented in our sample client on Github.
How do I change my password on Fairlay?
You need to make sure that your balance is below 500mBTC. Than use the lost password option that is available when your are logged out.
My account was compromised / there is a major security breach. What can I do?
Please contact our customer service via Uservoice. If it is a really urgent and crucial matter, you can also automatically stop all withdrawals.
Whenever the address 1B9UmvQSeRkpAotgZbc7TZTaup7zxrwJ3Y has a balance of 10 mBTC or more no withdrawals for any user on Fairlay will be processed. Any deposit to that address will be returned to one of the sender's addresses.
How can I make my account more secure?
1st) We can put a special security flag on your account. This cannot be undone and would mean:
- that you can not add any additional withdrawal addresses via our website
- that you cannot make any transfers to other users
- that you cannot put maker bets on the market
- that you can only match bets with our trusted market makers
- place no more than 5 bets on any market within a 72 hour period
If you want us to so, please contact our customer support.
2nd) You can place bets, manage your account and make withdrawals via our API. This means that everything you do must be signed by your private key. Additionally we can permanently set your native Fairlay account to read-only.
This would mean that you can no longer place bets, make withdrawals or payments or create new API accounts via our website.
Please contact us for any help you may need.
Can I generate a new deposit address?
For privacy and security reasons, new deposit addresses are not generated on our webserver. There is a very easy workaround if you still like to use one: create a new instant account and deposit funds there. As soon as the deposit is credited, you can send a payment to your old account.
A future market (also known as CFD or Contract For Difference) is an agreement between two peers where both exchange the difference in value of a financial product between where a trade is entered and exited. It’s a tradable instrument that mirrors the movements of any underlying asset.
This kind of prediction market creates a derivative in which you can speculate on a future price of any given asset, such as BTC, USD, China GDP, S&P 500 YoY growth, Nintendo earnings per share, etc.
The settlement is determined by the price at the resolution date taking the source from the description and following our index policy settlement.
The contract settlement is distributed pro-rata in mBTC to the participants of each trade.
The holder of a short position on any future market gets the following winnings on settlement:
order_amount * (order_price - settlement_result)
Inverse Future Markets
The holder of a short position on any inverse future market gets the following winnings on settlement:
order_amount * (order_price / settlement_result - 1)
Example of an Inverse Future Market:
User Alice wants to sell 5 mBTC at a price of 1000 BTC/USD on an BTC/USD inverse CFD market (in theory Alice now owns 5 USD and 0 mBTC).
Assume that the market settles to 400 BTC/USD (in theory Alice now uses all her 5 USD to buy BTC back at a price of 400 BTC/USD - she therefore gets 12.5 mBTC).
She leaves with a winning of 7.5 mBTC. This is what is simulated with the settlement formula: winnings = 5 mBTC * (1000 / 400 - 1) = 7.5 mBTC
Further settlement rules for future and inverse future markets
- As soon as the underlying settlement index of any future market is outside the market boundaries for more than 5 consecutive minutes, the market will settle to the corresponding boundary.
- If any settlement index of any future or inverse future market is manipulated at the resolution time, the resolution time may be moved. In that case a random time in a time frame of 6 hours starting at resolution time will be used.
Fairlay Indices Rules
- The BTC settlement will be based on the BLX index (bravenewcoin.com/markets/) in case there’s any issue such as down time or market manipulation we reserve the right to use the XBX index (tradeblock.com/markets/index/) for settling the markets.
- Altcoins settlement will be based on the corresponding Poloniex prices, in case there’s any issue such as down time or market manipulation we reserve the right to use the XBL index (bravenewcoin.com/markets/) for settling the markets.
- If both BTC indexes are not available or were manipulated, we reserve the right to calculate our own index. In that case we’ll take the average excluding the highest and lowest price of the following exchanges: BTC-e, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, itBit, OKcoinUSD, Coinbase.
What will happen in case of a chain split?
In case of a chain split, all markets that were created before the split will settle in both resulting currencies. If there is a market about price predictions of Bitcoin, the sum of both hard forks is taken into consideration for the settlement as long as the market was created before the split and there is nothing else announced in the market description.
How are markets settled that are missing the winning runner?
We usually only try to have markets, that have all possible winners listed. If necessary, it has to have a runner called "Other".
If you should find any market that is not "whole" , i.e. missing certain cases or runners, please forward it to our moderators and they will close it to not allow further betting.
From a technical point, our moderators are only able to select either a winner or make the market void in general. The option to set all runners to lost is not provided.
Markets are created by lots of different users and sometimes are no accurately describing every possible case. We do our best to grade these markets according to our best knowledge even if runners or special cases are missing. If one of the provided runners wins, we settle to this runner. if a runner wins that is not listed and the case is also not listed in the description, it will be settled to void.