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News

Forecast elections results and Trump´s exit date. Bet on Game of Thrones characters to win the iron throne. Predict about anything from entertainment to politics on our news section.

On a totally open market, you can trade on the outcome of upcoming elections and turn your political knowledge into profit.

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Presidential Election Winner

Who will be the winner of U.S. Presidential Election in November 2020? The election of President and Vice President of the United States is an indirect election in which citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the 50 U.S. states or Washington, D.C. cast ballots for members of the U.S. Electoral College, known as electors. These electors then in turn cast direct votes, known as electoral votes, for President and Vice President. The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes for President or Vice President (currently, at least 270 out of a total of 538) is then elected to that office.

Will Donald Trump remain President of the United States until january 2020?

This market will resolve to YES if Trump is still President of the United States on January 20 (noon, Eastern time), and will resolve to NO if Trump leaves office before that date for ANY reason (impeachment, resignation, health issues, assassination, coup...). The resolution date of this market may be accelerated. Bets matched after the antedated resolution date will be voided. New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

House Of Representatives Majoirty

Which party will control a majority of seats as a result of the 2018 US House of Representatives elections? Note: A majority of seats requires either party to win at least 218 of the total 435 House of Representatives seats in contention. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market. Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any point up until the stated time on the day of election when this market will be, turned in-play. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions.

Which party will control the House after 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the number of representatives who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the party identified in the question shall be greater than half the number of voting members of the House of Representatives. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Joe Manchin be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2018?

Joe Manchin shall be the winner of the 2018 general election for U.S.Senator from West Virginia. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Republican Nominee

Who will be elected to be the Republican Party presidential nominee for the 2020 U.S. presidential election? This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Republican National Convention. This market will be, turned in-play, with unmatched bets cancelled at the start of the 2020 Republican National Convention. Thereafter, this market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times. Additional runners may be added to this market upon request. All bets stand run or not.

Trump exit date

When will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America? This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All [unsettled] bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt. If Donald Trump fails to be inaugurated then this market will be void. New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Will Bob Menendez be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 2018?

Bob Menendez shall be the winner of the 2018 general election for U.S.Senator from New Jersey.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Donald Trump be president at year-end 2019?

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States at 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) on December 31, 2019? New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Will Rod Rosenstein be Deputy Attorney General on Sept. 30?

Rod Rosenstein shall be U.S.Deputy Attorney General at 11:59 p.m.(ET) on September 30, 2018.

First to Happen - Brexit/May to Leave?

Which will occur first? The United Kingdom officially leaves the European Union or Teresa May leaves the office of Prime Minister? For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the two year negotiating period (29/03/2019) as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of the two year time period in Article 50 being extended, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU. For the purposes of this market Teresa May leaving the office of Prime Minister includes, but is not limited to, if Teresa May leaves office due electoral loss (both within her own party or by a General Election), death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All bets will be voided if Teresa May ceases to be Prime Minister of the UK Parliament due to an assassination or an assassination attempt.

Will the Senate confirm a SCOTUS nominee in September?

At or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) September 30, 2018 ("expiration") and not sooner than September 1, 2018, the U.S.Senate shall commence a confirmation vote on the nomination of a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States and such vote shall pass. The vote on the nomination will be considered to have commenced once at least one senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, this market will resolve as Yes, even if the vote concludes after expiration. Endorsement votes in the Senate Judiciary Committee, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no bearing on the resolution of this Market.

Which party will win the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee in 2018?

The winner of the 2018 Tennessee general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the question.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the balance of power in the U.S.Congress shall reflect the characterization in the question, per the definitions listed below."Republican Senate" means 50 or more sitting U.S.Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party."Democratic Senate" means fewer than 50 sitting U.S.Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party."Republican House" means 218 or more sitting U.S.Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party."Democratic House" fewer than 218 sitting U.S.Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

Will Ted Cruz be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Texas in 2018?

Ted Cruz shall be the winner of the 2018 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Theresa May be prime minister of the United Kingdom at year-end?

Theresa May shall be prime minister of the United Kingdom at 11:59:59 p.m.(London Time) on December 31, 2018.

How many House seats will the GOP hold after 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the number of U.S. Representatives who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party shall be the number or range identified in the question.

Which party will control the Senate after 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the number of senators who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the party identified in the question, shall, if the president has the same party affiliation, be equal to or greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S.Senate, and if the president has a different party affiliation, be greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

How many federal charges will Paul Manafort be convicted on by year-end 2018?

One or more federal courts shall, in aggregate, find former Donald Trump presidential campaign manager Paul Manafort guilty of the number of federal criminal offenses identified in the question on or before December 31, 2018, as confirmed by an authorized representative of such court(s) or Mr.Manafort on or before that date.Such guilty findings may or may not follow Mr.Manafort pleading guilty or no contest to the charge or charges in question or entering into a plea agreement.Any later expungement, vacating, setting aside, or other modification or nullification of such convictions will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court by Oct. 31?

At or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) October 31, 2018, the U.S.Senate shall commence a confirmation vote on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, in which Susan Collins casts a Yea vote, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.The vote on the nomination will be considered to have commenced once at least one senator has cast a vote.So long as a vote on the nomination commences prior to expiration, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source upon expiration.Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as Justice of the Supreme Court commence prior to expiration, this market will resolve as No.Should a vote on the nomination result in the confirmation of the nominee via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market will resolve as Yes.Should more than one vote on the nomination be held, the outcome of the first such vote, the final result of which is announced by the presiding officer of the Senate, will be used to resolve this market.The overall outcome of the vote on the nomination will have no bearing on the resolution of this Market.The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this Market.

Will Dianne Feinstein be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in California in 2018?

Dianne Feinstein shall be the winner of the 2018 general election for U.S.Senator from California.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will there be a recession in Trump's 1st term?

The U.S.economy shall experience at least two consecutive quarters with a negative annual growth rate in real gross domestic product, as rounded to the first decimal, according to the third estimate of such quarters' GDP growth rates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Should Mr.Trump not complete his first term in office, only those quarters during part or all of which he served as president may qualify.Neither data nor announcements published by the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee or any federal agency other than the Bureau of Economic Analysis will have any bearing on the resolution of this market, unless selected as an alternate source in the absence of the availability of the prescribed settlement source.

Will Donald Trump be the 2020 Republican nominee for president?

Donald Trump shall win the 2020 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

How many Yea votes will Kavanaugh receive in a confirmation vote by Oct. 31?

At or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) October 31, 2018 ("expiration"), the U.S.Senate shall commence a confirmation vote on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, in which the number of senators casting Yea votes equals the number or range identified in the question, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.The vote on the nomination will be considered to have commenced once at least one senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source upon expiration.Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh as Justice of the Supreme Court commence during the prescribed time period; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee, whether by roll call, voice vote, or division vote; or should Brett Kavanaugh be confirmed to the Supreme Court in a vote that commences prior to expiration; the question identifying the range "49 or fewer" will resolve as Yes and all other questions in this market will resolve as No.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the question identifying the range "60 or more" will resolve as Yes and all other questions in this market will resolve as No.Should more than one full Senate confirmation vote be held during the prescribed time period, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

Will Nicolas Maduro be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2018?

Nicolas Maduro Moros shall hold the office of president of Venezuela at 11:59:59 pm.(ET) on December 31, 2018.

How many House seats will Democrats hold after 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the number of U.S.Representatives who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Democratic Party shall be the number or range identified in the question.

Will a federal criminal charge against Roger Stone be confirmed by December 31, 2018?

Former Donald Trump presidential campaign advisor Roger Stone shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime on or before December 31, 2018, as confirmed on or before that date by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

Which party will win the U.S. Senate race in Arizona in 2018?

The winner of the 2018 Arizona general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the question. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un at the White House in 2018?

Donald Trump, while serving as president of the United States, shall meet in person at the White House with Kim Jong Un, serving as leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, at or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET), December 31, 2018.Public disclosure by the White House of the meeting and the meeting itself must both occur (though not necessarily conclude) on or before that date.

Will Donald Trump be impeached by year-end 2019?

By 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) on December 31, 2019, the full U.S.House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump.Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S.Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

Will the 2020 Democratic nominee for president be a woman?

A woman shall win the 2020 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

How many Senate seats will the GOP hold after 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the number of U.S.Senators who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party shall be the number or range identified in the question.

Will a federal criminal charge against Donald Trump, Jr. be confirmed by year-end 2018?

Subsequent to the launch of this market, Donald John Trump, Jr.shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before December 31, 2018 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

Will Trump pardon Flynn by year-end 2018?

On or before December 31, 2018, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.Such pardon will be considered to have been granted if Mr.Flynn appears on the official list of presidential pardons, maintained by the U.S.Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients).While the granting of such pardon must take place on or before December 31, 2018, publication of an updated list reflecting such pardon need not occur by that date.Commutation of sentencing in and of itself will not be considered a pardon and will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

Senate Majority

Which party will control the majority of seats as a result of the 2018 U.S. Senate elections? Note: A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the U.S. Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market. Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any point up until the stated time on the day of election when this market will be turned in-play. Thereafter, the market will not be actively managed and users are responsible for their positions.

Will Trump meet with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in 2018?

Following the launch of this market, Donald Trump, while serving as president of the United States, shall meet in person with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, as either president or president-elect of Mexico, at or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET), December 31, 2018.Public disclosure by the White House of the meeting and the meeting itself must both occur (though not necessarily conclude) on or before that date.

Winning Party

Which party's nominee will win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election? Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any point up until the start of voting on the day of the election when this market will be turned in-play. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed and customers are solely responsible for their own positions at all times. Additional parties may be added to this market on request.

Trump exit date

When will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America? This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All [unsettled] bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt. If Donald Trump fails to be inaugurated then this market will be void. New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Trump to serve full term

Is Donald Trump to serve full term as U.S. President? New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Trump to serve full term

Will U.S. President Donald Trump to serve full term? New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Trump Exit Date 2

When will Donald Trump officially cease to be the President of the United States of America? This includes, but is not limited to, if Donald Trump leaves office due to death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). All [unsettled] bets will be voided if Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States of America due to an assassination or an assassination attempt. If Donald Trump fails to be inaugurated then this market will be void. New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Will Joe Biden run for president in 2020?

Former Vice President Joe Biden shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2020 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission.Absent such filing(s), the Market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Biden and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.

Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?

During Donald Trump's first term as president of the United States, the full U.S. House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Trump. Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as YES. New York City real estate developer and reality TV star Donald Trump (1946- ) was elected America’s 45th president in November 2016. The billionaire businessman ran as a Republican and scored an upset victory over his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. Trump began his career working for his father’s real estate development firm, taking over its leadership in the 1970s. In the ensuing decades, he acquired and built hotels, office towers, casinos and golf courses and also appeared on 14 seasons of “The Apprentice.” He is the first person ever elected to the U.S. presidency without any previous government or military experience.

Will a federal criminal charge against James Comey be confirmed by December 31, 2018?

Former FBI Director James Comey shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime on or before December 31, 2018, as confirmed on or before that date by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

Who will win the 2020 Republican presidential nomination?

The individual identified in the question shall win the 2020 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Which party will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

The winner of the 2020 general presidential election shall be the nominee of the party identified in the question. For purposes of this market, a party's presidential candidate as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 3, 2020 shall be considered that party's nominee. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?

The individual identified in the question shall be the winner of the 2020 U.S.presidential general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

Will Robert Mueller be out as special counsel by December 31?

At or before 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) December 31, 2018, Robert Mueller shall cease to serve as special counsel overseeing the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and related matters, whether due to his resignation, termination, or other means, as confirmed at or before that date and time by Mr.Mueller, the Department of Justice or an authorized representative of either.No replacement need be named to replace Mr.Mueller's in that role or function.

What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2018 midterms?

At the beginning of the 116th Congress, the balance of power in the U.S.Congress shall reflect the characterization in the question, per the definitions listed below. "Republican Senate" means 50 or more sitting U.S.Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party. "Democratic Senate" means fewer than 50 sitting U.S.Senators were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party. "Republican House" means 218 or more sitting U.S.Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party. "Democratic House" fewer than 218 sitting U.S.Representatives were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the Republican Party.

Will a federal criminal charge against Tony Podesta be confirmed by year-end?

On or before December 31, 2018 and subsequent to the launch of this market, Podesta Group founder Anthony Podesta shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as confirmed on or before December 31, 2018 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

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