Trump Exit Date 2

When will Donald Trump officially cease to be the US President? What are the odds of Trump surviving 2018 in office? The market thinks that the threats to Trump’s presidency are many- the Mueller investigation, rumours of early-stage dementia, former staffers with axes to grind, and the list continues. Bet with the best Trump exit date Politics odds on Fairlay betting exchange.

Will Donald Trump complete his first term?

Donald Trump shall be president of the United States until conclusion of the four-year term to which he was elected in 2016.Temporary incapacity resulting in the temporary transfer of authority to an acting president shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.End Date: 01/20/2021 12:00 AM (ET).

Will Trump grant clemency to Roger Stone in his first term?

During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant clemency to political consultant Roger Jason Stone Jr.for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions.Such clemency will be considered to have been granted only if Mr.Stone appears on the official list of presidential pardons and commutations granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S.Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).

Clemency for Mr.Stone that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes.Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to a clemency grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will Kim Jong-Un be Supreme Leader of North Korea on Dec. 31?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kim Jong Un is Head of State of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea at the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source").

End Date: 12/31/2020 11:59 PM (ET).

Will there be a US recession by the end of 2020?

Will there be a US recession by the end of 2020?,For the purposes of this market a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth based on rates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We will only settle once final quarterly revisions have been released by the BEA.,Rule updated 10/09/2019

Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?

At 11:59:59 p.m.(ET) on January 31, 2021, the number of U.S.senators who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the party identified in the question, shall, if the vice president has the same party affiliation, be equal to or greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S.Senate, and if the vice president has a different party affiliation, be greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.End Date: 01/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will a federal charge against Rudy Giuliani be confirmed by Dec. 31, 2020?

Subsequent to the launch of this market, former mayor of New York Rudolph Giuliani shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before December 31, 2020 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

End Date: 12/31/2020 11:59 PM (ET).

Will a federal charge against Hunter Biden be confirmed by Dec. 31, 2020?

Subsequent to the launch of this market, Hunter Biden, son of former U.S.Vice President Joe Biden, shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before December 31, 2020 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s).

End Date: 12/31/2020 11:59 PM (ET).

Which party will win New Hampshire in the 2020 presidential election?

The winner of the popular vote in New Hampshire for the 2020 general election for U.S.President shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

End Date: N/A.

Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alabama in 2020?

The winner of the 2020 Alabama general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the question.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

End Date: N/A.

Which presidential candidate will finish fourth in the popular vote?

The winning contract shall be that which identifies the candidate who finishes fourth in the national popular vote for U.S.President in the 2020 general election.

Any tie in ranking amongst candidates shall be broken on a last name, followed by first name, alphabetical basis.Any category of votes separately reported by the FEC as miscellaneous write-ins will not be considered when resolving this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

What will be the margin in the presidential election in Florida?

The winning contract shall be that which identifies the party, between the Democratic and Republican parties, whose presidential candidate wins a larger percentage of the popular vote in the 2020 U.S.presidential election in Florida, and the difference in the percentages of the popular vote won by these two party candidates.Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates officially reported.

In the event of a tie in the percentage of the popular vote won by the two party candidates, the contract "GOP by under 1%" shall resolve to Yes.Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.

How many Yea votes will Coney Barrett receive in a confirmation vote by Jan. 19?



The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number of Yea votes cast in the U.S.Senate, by Senators, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, on the nomination of of Amy Coney Barrett as Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.The vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.

Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett as Justice of the Supreme Court commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee, whether by roll call, voice vote, or division vote; or should Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court in a vote that commences after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve as Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "55 or more" shall resolve as Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.

The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

End Date: 01/19/2021 11:59 PM (ET)

Supplementary Comment(s)

Created On: 09/29/2020 9:10 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The Rules for this market expressly state that resolution is based on the number of Yea votes cast "by Senators".Vice President Mike Pence is not a Senator.Should he cast a tiebreaking Yea vote, it would not be counted in the total of Yea votes cast "by Senators".

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Will Trump grant clemency to Michael Flynn in his first term?

During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant clemency to former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions.Such clemency will be considered to have been granted only if Mr.Flynn appears on the official list of presidential pardons and commutations granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S.Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).

Clemency for Mr.Flynn that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes.Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to a clemency grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

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