The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract.A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that shall make up the first governing coalition of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
A party shall be considered to be part of a governing coalition if a majority of its representatives in the Bundestag cast a vote in favor of the election of the next Chancellor of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
For purposes of this market, any contract that references the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shall also be considered to reference the Christian Social Union in Bavaria.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 09/02/2021 12:48 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The contract that resolves to Yes shall list all of the parties that make up the coalition, and only those parties.For example, if a contract lists only two parties and the coalition includes more than just those two, that contract will resolve as No.Potential coalitions may be added to this market as needed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.
If no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No.For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S.Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S.Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for October 20 at the End Date listed below.The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled "How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using "All Polls", as displayed on the graph for October 20 at the End Date listed below.
Any number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than October 20 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below.The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled "Polling Data", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html ("the Settlement Source"), at the row labeled as as "RCP Average."
Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled "RCP Average" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S.House of Representatives who vote in favor of passage of a qualifying infrastructure bill, subsequent to the launch of this market on October 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below.This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
For purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in substantial part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework.A bill that passes a short-term surface funding transportation reauthorization shall not be considered a qualifying infrastructure bill.
Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "217 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "242 or more" shall resolve as Yes.
Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S.Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions.Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market.Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S".
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S.Senate.Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S.House of Representatives in the 2022 general election.A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S.state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.
Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.
Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S.House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election.Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat.An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day.In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m.(ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. .
This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S.House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.
An individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.
This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen.Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from the City of Virginia Beach in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.
Candidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Buffalo, New York in the 2021 general election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Arizona Republican nomination for U.S.Senate.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021. .
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S.Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Chile.
If no presidential election is held in 2021, all contracts shall resolve as No.For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2021 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2021.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of seats won by candidates who have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic Party in the 2021 general election for the Virginia House of Delegates.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from Morris County in the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election.
Candidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the individual who wins the most votes from Chesterfield County in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.
Candidates who receive the same number of votes will be ranked in last name alphabetical order for purposes of resolving this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 5, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.Prime Minister Kishidia Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are "Xi" and "Kishida", respectively.
This market shall resolve to Yes if Minneapolis Ballot Question 2, the Public Safety Charter Amendment, is approved by Minneapolis voters in the November 2021 election.The approved measure's effective date, funding availability, enforcement, repeal, or litigation will have no effect on the resolution of this market.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the individual who wins the 2021 election for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of government that the individual holds upon launch of this market on October 6, 2021.No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold the position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy of such person from, or appointment of another person to, that position.Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan's absence from the Settlement Source at the time of the launch of the market shall not be considered relevant for the resolution of this market.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the individual with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.For purposes of this market, the family names of President Moon Jae-in, President Joko Widodo, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio are "Moon," "Widodo," and "Kishida," respectively.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.
If no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No.For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S.Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Christine O'Hearn (the "Nominee") to be a judge on the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey (the "Office"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "66 or more" shall resolve to Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S.House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on October 15, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that is passed through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.
Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "212 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the passage of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "221 or more" shall resolve as Yes.
Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or purely procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
