Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"
This market resolves as "Yes" if Donald Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee for US president. It will resolve "No" if anyone except Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for US President in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".
If Joe Biden does not drop out or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 Presidential Election by 12:01 AM ET on November 5, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".
Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
