Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET).
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1y
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 year to end
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Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET).
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1y
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 year to end
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Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms.Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms.Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET).
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1y
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 year to end
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How many votes to confirm Christine O'Hearn to the District of NJ by Nov. 5?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S.Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Christine O'Hearn (the "Nominee") to be a judge on the United States District Court for the District of New Jersey (the "Office"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "66 or more" shall resolve to Yes.Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 11/05/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2w
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 weeks to end
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Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 months to end
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Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote.So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date.The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 months to end
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What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the marginal federal tax rate applicable to the highest bracket of regular corporate income for the 2022 tax year in any federal legislation that may be enacted by the End Date.In the event that no such legislation is enacted by the End Date, the contract “21% or lower” shall resolve to Yes.In the event, that more than one such bill is enacted by the End Date, resolution of this market shall be based on the provisions of the latest law enacted.
Enactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law.
Tax rates shall be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point for the purposes of resolving this market.
Any law regarding the rate of corporate taxation for 2022 that may be enacted after the End Date shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 months to end
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new
What will Joe Biden's 538 job approval rating be for Oct. 20?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval rating for October 20 at the End Date listed below.The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled "How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using "All Polls", as displayed on the graph for October 20 at the End Date listed below.
Any number displayed on the FiveThirtyEight graph at the End Date for any day other than October 20 will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
End Date: 10/21/2021 10:00 AM (ET).
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2d
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 days to end
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new
How many Yea votes in the House for a bipartisan infrastructure bill by Nov. 1?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S.House of Representatives who vote in favor of passage of a qualifying infrastructure bill, subsequent to the launch of this market on October 1, 2021 and by the End Date listed below.This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website house.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
For purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in substantial part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework.A bill that passes a short-term surface funding transportation reauthorization shall not be considered a qualifying infrastructure bill.
Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "217 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "242 or more" shall resolve as Yes.
Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 11/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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1w
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 week to end
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How many Yea votes in the House by Nov. 19 to pass reconciliation?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S.House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on October 15, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of a bill that is passed through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.
Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "212 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the passage of the resolution via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "221 or more" shall resolve as Yes.
Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or purely procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 11/19/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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1mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 month to end
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What will Joe Biden's RCP job approval rating be at 11 a.m. on Oct. 22?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval rating at the End Date listed below.The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls entitled "Polling Data", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html ("the Settlement Source"), at the row labeled as as "RCP Average."
Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the live number labeled "RCP Average" will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
End Date: 10/22/2021 11:00 AM (ET).
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3d
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC3 days to end
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Will Rahm Emanuel be confirmed as ambassador to Japan by Dec. 31?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rahm Emanuel is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Ambassador to Japan by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 months to end
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Will Donald Trump be indicted by Apr. 1?
This market shall resolve to Yes if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States unseals or otherwise officially announces a criminal indictment of former President Donald Trump by the End Date listed below.For purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
An indictment that has been issued but remains sealed or otherwise secret at the End Date shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
End Date: 04/01/2022 11:59 PM (ET).
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5mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC5 months to end
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Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S.Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members.For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET).
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1y
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC1 year to end
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live
Will Joe Biden Complete his first term as President?
Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"
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3y
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6.64 mBTC
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854.27 mBTC3 years to end
Doesn't complete first term
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Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below.A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S.Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET).
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3y
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3.28 mBTC
|
5.93 mBTC3 years to end
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Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act.
The legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
End Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 08/03/2021 6:33 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: As used in the Rules, Class One means Schedule I.
.
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6mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC6 months to end
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Will SCOTUS strike down Mississippi ban on pre-viability abortions in Dobbs?
This market shall resolve as Yes if the Supreme Court, in a ruling that decides the outcome of Dobbs v.Jackson Women s Health Organization, issues an opinion subsequent to the launch of this market and by the End Date listed below, with the effect of striking down Mississippi's ban on pre-viability abortions.
End Date: 07/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET).
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9mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC9 months to end
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How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S.Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S.Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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2.34 mBTC
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4.84 mBTC2 months to end
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live
Total COVID deaths in USA in 2021
Total number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States during the calander year from the beginning of the day January 1st 2021 to the end of the day December 31st 2021...total deaths will be taken from worldometers.info/coronavirus, if that site is unavailable data will be taken from the CDC.
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2mo
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0.64 mBTC
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527.45 mBTC2 months to end
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Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S.presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No.Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
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1w
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0.00 mBTC
|
0.00 mBTC1 week to end
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How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021?
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture in the U.S.Senate in 2021.
The total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture can be found by subtracting the number of times that cloture is invoked from the number of votes on cloture (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/clotureCounts.htm).
The outcome of a vote to invoke cloture that begins in 2021 and finishes in 2022 will be counted towards the resolution of this market.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).
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2mo
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0.00 mBTC
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0.00 mBTC2 months to end
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