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Endo vs. Shodai

Matchups

Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below.Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.

Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr.Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.

The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr.Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.

End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will Trump grant clemency to Roger Stone in his first term?

During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant clemency to political consultant Roger Jason Stone Jr.for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions.Such clemency will be considered to have been granted only if Mr.Stone appears on the official list of presidential pardons and commutations granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S.Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).

Clemency for Mr.Stone that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes.Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to a clemency grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S.Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 1?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office.Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.

Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.

End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S.Senate casting votes to convict Donald J.Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.

Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr.Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes.Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr.Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes.

This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote.Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.

The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S.Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J.Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict.Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.

This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote.Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote.Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

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Will Joe Biden Complete his first term as President?

Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"

Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?

This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg has been confirmed by the U.S.Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.

End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, within a date range, the date upon which the Reverend Raphael Warnock takes the oath of office to become a U.S.Senator.Should Rev.Warnock not be sworn in before the End Date listed below, the contract "February 1 or later" shall resolve to Yes.

End Date: 01/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?

This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S.Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J.Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.

End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, within a date range, the date upon which Jon Ossoff takes the oath of office to become a U.S.Senator.Should Mr.Ossoff not be sworn in before the End Date listed below, the contract "February 1 or later" shall resolve to Yes.

End Date: 01/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET).

Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31, 2021?

The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source").

End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET).

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Total COVID deaths in USA in 2021

Total number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States during the calander year from the beginning of the day January 1st 2021 to the end of the day December 31st 2021...total deaths will be taken from worldometers.info/coronavirus, if that site is unavailable data will be taken from the CDC.

Will the Senate convict Trump?

The market will be settled on the result of the Senate vote for the FIRST impeachment trial to take place in 2021 only,If a Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump does not formally begin before the end of 2021 then all bets are void. A majority of two thirds of US Senators present voting in favour is required for a successful conviction. The market will be settled on "Yes" if Donald Trump is convicted on at least one article of impeachment. No will be settled as a winner if an impeachment Senate trial is formally started and (i) the required two-third majority is not reached on at least one article of impeachment; (ii) the Senate votes to dismiss the charges or (iii) the Senate trial concludes without the President having been convicted on at least one article of impeachment for some other reason.

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